US intelligence estimates Iran retains up to 2,500 missiles following recent strikes

United States intelligence agencies estimate that Iran retains between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles following recent US and Israeli strikes. This assessment carries a low level of confidence because officials face difficulties distinguishing between missiles held in storage and those prepared for launch. The findings contrast with previous statements regarding the effectiveness of recent military operations against Iranian capabilities.

Discrepancies in military assessments

Israeli military officials estimate that Iran possesses more than 1,500 ballistic missiles. While US President Donald Trump stated on November 9, 2026, that the war was "militarily effectively finished" following an interview with the Qatari Prime Minister, intelligence data suggests a substantial remaining arsenal. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth previously commented that the missile program of Iran is functionally destroyed.

Simone Ledeen, the former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, noted that even the low estimate of 1,500 missiles suggests Iran has rebuilt more than half of its pre-war stockpile. This rebuilding appears to coincide with reports that production of the missile, drone, and air defense systems of Iran has resumed.

Recent drone and missile activity

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have fired six drones at a US air defense radar at the Al-Rifaa helicopter base in Bahrain on November 15, 2026. The US and Bahraini military reported intercepting these latest Iranian attacks on November 15, 2026. Iran has conducted various missile and drone attacks against US bases and ships in the region, including near the Strait of Hormuz.

media reports reported that the Khorramshahr ballistic missile from Iran is capable of reaching US military bases in Europe. Furthermore, media reports reported that Iranian strikes conducted in June and July 2026 were characterized by increased sophistication and specifically targeted the sleeping quarters of soldiers.

Uncertainty in intelligence data

The current intelligence assessment regarding the remaining missile stockpile of Iran is characterized by a low level of confidence. Analysts noted that the inability to differentiate between missiles in storage and those ready for immediate launch complicates the evaluation of Iran's current military readiness. This uncertainty persists even as regional tensions remain high following the recent military strikes.